Election News, Reporting from Ohio
By Fred Owens
First
a little earthquakes news -- we report shaking but no damage in Santa
Barbara. Longtime residents took it in stride. Newcomers like me got a
little nervous.
Andy
Boyer is a lifelong resident of Ohio and an astute political observer.
Andy and I became friends in 2004 when we worked together on the John
Kerry campaign. We toiled day and night for weeks on end, and talked and
talked into the late hours and ate too much pizza. Kerry lost that
campaign, as we all know, but I made some good friends and came to like
the city of Columbus, Ohio.
I asked Andy to report from Ohio on the 2020 campaign. Here are my questions and his answers.
1. Who won Ohio in 2016 and why?
2. Ohio is important. Why?
3. Which candidate can win Ohio in 2020?
4. Are Biden and Harris enemies, or are they just sparring?
5. What else is on your mind on this topic?
6. And, briefly, a baseball forecast. Do the Indians have a chance?
Andy Replied
Fred,
You ask some tough questions and I don’t have
all the answers. Trump won Ohio in 2016. It probably helped him that the
Republican convention was held in Cleveland. It also hurt us,
Democrats, that Hillary is someone that most voters had already
formulated an opinion on long before she was a candidate for any office.
One either loves her or hates her so that doesn’t leave a lot of room
to win over swing voters. I honestly think there were many moderate
conservatives searching for a reason to cross the aisle and vote for her
but she never gave them the push they needed.
Ohio
has accurately chosen the winner of the presidency in all but four
occasions and has been correct for 56 years consecutive (Grover
Cleveland 1884 & 1892, FDR 1944, and John Kennedy 1960). Why is this
important, on the surface it seems coincidental? One reason is because
Ohio’s population is reflective of the nation as a whole. Another is we
have a lot of media markets. Instead of one mega city we have three semi
big cities (Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati) and a handful of cities in
the next tier (Toledo, Akron, Dayton). A candidate has to spend a lot
of money in Ohio to be competitive because there are more markets to buy
ads than in many other states. Many of these markets cross over into
neighboring states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, West Virginia and
Kentucky). So being competitive in Ohio allows one to begin competing in
neighboring states as well. Then there is location. Ohio is within 600
miles of 60% of the entire U.S. population. How does a candidate reach
the most voters? Stick close to where the majority lives. This allows an
Ohioan to gather a good amount of information (or disinformation) prior
to voting.
I prefer not to make predictions
and my preference could change between now and the 2020 primary. I worry
that the Democratic field is too large. It is allowing candidates to
appeal to small constituency groups instead of forcing them to have a
broad appeal to the party as a whole. The more moderate the candidate
the more crossover appeal they will have with undecided voters in the
general election. A nominee with narrow appeal would need a viable third
party candidate that appeals to the Right in order to win. Too many
primary candidates spreads out votes and leaves us with a nominee that
is only representative of the largest constituency group and less
appealing to the population as a whole.
Kamala
Harris was being savvy in her attack of Joe Biden to give herself a
chance but the accusation doesn’t hold. Biden was honored by the
Congressional Black Caucus for a lifetime commitment to civil rights.
She’s picking a fight with her ally. That works at the moment because
there is a primary candidate for nearly every special interest. It
allows her to appeal to hers but would hurt her once she needs a broader
appeal. Currently Biden has the most broad appeal followed by Harris.
If either was the nominee the other would endorse. We need to stop
fighting over the small stuff and pound home what all Americans care
about: JOBS, JOBS, JOBS and WORKERS RIGHTS! And I’m not talking about
hairstyles in the workplace but rather minimum wage, healthcare and
benefits. For this reason a Tim Ryan or Sherrod Brown type would be the
best choice for VP regardless of who wins the nomination. James Carville
got it right when he said, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
Clearly
more important than politics is baseball as we approach the Allstar
break. This year the midsummer classic returns to Cleveland and we are
excited to host once again. Cleveland has been devastated by injuries
early on this season but we keep hanging on. With our manager Terry
“Tito” Francona we always have a shot. If we can get healthy down the
stretch then we can make a run. I honestly think Frankie Lindor is the
best player in baseball but I’m more than a little biased.
Thanks, Andy
Thanks, Andy. Let's stay in touch.
Fred
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